Executive summary The 2013 EU strategy on adaptation to climate change aims at contributing to a more climate-resilient Europe. However, there are still large gaps in understanding and characterising climate impacts in Europe and how impacts in the rest of the world could affect Europe. This report provides quantitative modelling-based results from biophysical and agro-economic models as part of the PESETA-IV (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) project. We analyse climate change projections for 2050 considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 8.5 W/m2 (with corresponding global warming levels ranging between 1.6 oC and 2.7 oC compared to pre-industrial levels), as well as for 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming conditions. Results show that climate change will pose a threat to global food production in the medium to long term, and that Europe will also be affected. Forced by the projected changes in daily temperature, precipitation, wind, relative humidity, and global radiation, grain maize yields in the EU will decline between 1% and 22%. In addition, wheat yields in Southern Europe are expected to decrease by up to 49%. However, in Northern Europe some of the negative productivity effects caused by climate change may be partially offset by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and changing precipitation regimes. Losses, especially in Southern Europe may be reduced by tailored adaptation strategies; e.g. changing varieties and crop types, increasing and improving irrigation practices for certain crops and when economically feasible. However, limitations on sustainable water abstraction levels could become a barrier to increase irrigation levels, specifically in the Mediterranean countries (particularly Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy and Turkey) where duration of water scarcity under global warming are projected to intensify. As large negative climate change impacts on productivity outside of the EU are estimated, large market spill-over effects will push up production in both Northern and Southern Europe through higher demand for some agricultural commodities outside of EU, resulting in higher producer prices. This, in turn, may benefit farmers' income and have positive effects on the EU’s agricultural commodity exports. However, other limiting factors (not all fully integrated into the used modelling system yet), such as increasing water shortage in Southern Europe (Task 10) and constraints on the expansion of irrigation, increasing impacts of heatwaves and droughts, consequences of reduction of nutrient use due to environmental and climate mitigation constraints, need to be further evaluated.

ABSTRACT Agriculture and climate change are characterized by a complex cause-effect relationship. The agricultural sector generates significant quantities of gas emissions that affect climate. The rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the increase in temperatures as well as changes in the precipitation regime have repercussions on the volume, quality and stability of the agricultural and zoo technical production, but also on the natural environment in which agriculture is practiced. Based on the above, the purpose of the paper is twofold. Firstly, through the Wroclaw Taxonomic Method, we construct a composite indicator, called the Index of Sustainable Agriculture (ISA), and analyse 28 countries that have joined the European Union from 1 July 2013 to today (EU-28) over the period 2005–2014, according to 16 variables. Secondly, the Granger-causality test for panel data is implemented in order to verify the causal relationship among the ISA, climate change and agricultural production. In other words, we test which of the three analyzed variables turns out to be the cause variable and which, instead, turns out to be the effect variable. Furthermore, we test if there is a bidirectional causality among the variables. This analysis provides a wide overview on how European countries rank according to the ISA and its three crucial pillars, i.e. environmental, economic and social. Moreover, important causality relationships among the ISA, climate changes (approximated by mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation and provided by the Climate Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.22 of the University of East Anglia) and agricultural production (approximated by wheat and spelt yields and provided by EUROSTAT) are identified. In particular, the following hypotheses are verified: 1) there is a negative bidirectional relationship between climate change and agricultural yields; 2) there is a negative bidirectional causal relationship between climate change and sustainable agriculture; 3) conventional agriculture negatively affects sustainable agriculture.

Connection between migation and climate change in an agricultural extend