ABSTRACT: This paper is a review, concerning the observed climatic changes in the precipitation regime of Greece, during the period 1956-2002, based on daily precipitation totals from 26 meteorological stations, assigned by the Hellenic National Meteorological Service. The annual trends of the precipitation time series were estimated using the Mann-Kendall rank statistic method. Besides, the probability of the extreme events was determined by the scale and shape parameters of the fitted Gamma distribution to the daily precipitation time series. The findings extracted by the analysis showed that, decreasing trends, mostly statistically significant at 95% confidence level, regarding the total annual precipitation and the annual number of rain days appear all over Greece. The fitted Gamma distributions to the precipitation datasets within 10-year sub periods indicate that the scale parameter increases for the western and southern-eastern sub regions, while the annual precipitation presents a downward trend, especially during the last decade 1991-2000. The increase in the variance and the scale parameter, as well as the shift of the mean towards higher values reveal the incidence of extreme daily precipitation values since 1980s. Key-words: Precipitation variability, Gamma distribution, extremes, climate change, Greece. ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ: Αυτή η εργασία είναι µια επισκόπηση, η οποία αφορά τις παρατηρούµενες κλιµατικές µεταβολές στο βροχοµετρικό καθεστώς της Ελλάδος, κατά την διάρκεια της περιόδου 1956-2002, βασισµένη σε ηµερήσια δεδοµένα βροχής από 26 µετεωρολογικούς σταθµούς, που παραχωρήθησαν από την Εθνική Μετεωρολογική Υπηρεσία. Οι ετήσιες τάσεις των χρονοσειρών της βροχής εκτιµήθηκαν εφαρµόζοντας την στατιστική µέθοδο Mann-Kendall. Επίσης, η πιθανότητα των ακραίων γεγονότων καθορίστηκε από τις παραµέτρους (scale και shape) της κατανοµής Γάµµα που προσαρµόστηκε στις χρονοσειρές των ηµερήσιων δεδοµένων. Τα εξαγόµενα συµπεράσµατα από την ανάλυση έδειξαν ότι, σε όλη την Ελλάδα εµφανίζονται τάσεις µείωσης (στατιστικά σηµαντικές σε επίπεδο εµπιστοσύνης 95%) στις χρονοσειρές της ετήσιας βροχής καθώς επίσης και στον ετήσιο αριθµό ηµερών βροχής. Οι προσαρµοσµένες κατανοµές Γάµµα στα ηµερήσια βροχοµετρικά δεδοµένα 10-ετών υποπεριόδων έδειξαν ότι η παράµετρος “scale” αυξάνει στις δυτικές και νοτιο-ανατολικές περιοχές της Ελλάδος, ενώ η ετήσια βροχόπτωση παρουσιάζει τάση ελάττωσης, ιδιαίτερα την τελευταία δεκαετία 1991-2000. Η παρατηρούµενη αύξηση της µεταβλητότητας της βροχής και της παραµέτρου “scale” της κατανοµής Γάµµα καθώς επίσης και η µετατόπιση της µέσης τιµής της ηµερήσιας βροχής προς υψηλότερες τιµές αποκαλύπτουν την εµφάνιση ακραίων ηµερήσιων ποσών βροχής από τη δεκαετία του 1980. Λέξεις-κλειδιά: Μεταβλητότητα βροχής, κατανοµή Γάµµα, ακραίες τιµές, κλιµατική µεταβολή, Ελλάδα.

abstract Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm management are often ignored, but these strongly influence current farm performance and are likely to also influence adaptation to future changes. This study analysed the adaptation of farmers and regions in the European Union to prevailing climatic conditions, climate change and climate variability in the last decades (1990–2003) in the context of other conditions and changes. We compared (1) responses in crop yields with responses in farmers’ income, (2) responses to spatial climate variability with responses to temporal climate variability, (3) farm level responses with regional level responses and (4) potential climate impacts (based on crop models) with actual climate impacts (based on farm accountancy data). Results indicated that impacts on crop yields cannot directly be translated to impacts on farmers’ income, as farmers adapt by changing crop rotations and inputs. Secondly, the impacts of climatic conditions on spatial variability in crop yields and farmers’ income, with generally lower yields in warmer climates, is different from the impacts of temporal variability in climate, for which more heterogeneous patterns are observed across regions in Europe. Thirdly, actual impacts of climate change and variability are largely dependent on farm characteristics (e.g. intensity, size, land use), which influence management and adaptation. To accurately understand impacts and adaptation, assessments should consider responses at different levels of organization. As different farm types adapt differently, a larger diversity in farm types reduces impacts of climate variability at regional level, but certain farm types may still be vulnerable. Lastly, we observed that management and adaptation can largely reduce the potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on crop yields and farmers’ income. We conclude that for reliable projections of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, adaptation should not be seen anymore as a last step in a vulnerability assessment, but as integrated part of the models used to simulate crop yields, farmers’ income and other indicators related to agricultural performance.

Executive summary The 2013 EU strategy on adaptation to climate change aims at contributing to a more climate-resilient Europe. However, there are still large gaps in understanding and characterising climate impacts in Europe and how impacts in the rest of the world could affect Europe. This report provides quantitative modelling-based results from biophysical and agro-economic models as part of the PESETA-IV (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) project. We analyse climate change projections for 2050 considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of 8.5 W/m2 (with corresponding global warming levels ranging between 1.6 oC and 2.7 oC compared to pre-industrial levels), as well as for 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming conditions. Results show that climate change will pose a threat to global food production in the medium to long term, and that Europe will also be affected. Forced by the projected changes in daily temperature, precipitation, wind, relative humidity, and global radiation, grain maize yields in the EU will decline between 1% and 22%. In addition, wheat yields in Southern Europe are expected to decrease by up to 49%. However, in Northern Europe some of the negative productivity effects caused by climate change may be partially offset by higher levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and changing precipitation regimes. Losses, especially in Southern Europe may be reduced by tailored adaptation strategies; e.g. changing varieties and crop types, increasing and improving irrigation practices for certain crops and when economically feasible. However, limitations on sustainable water abstraction levels could become a barrier to increase irrigation levels, specifically in the Mediterranean countries (particularly Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, Italy and Turkey) where duration of water scarcity under global warming are projected to intensify. As large negative climate change impacts on productivity outside of the EU are estimated, large market spill-over effects will push up production in both Northern and Southern Europe through higher demand for some agricultural commodities outside of EU, resulting in higher producer prices. This, in turn, may benefit farmers' income and have positive effects on the EU’s agricultural commodity exports. However, other limiting factors (not all fully integrated into the used modelling system yet), such as increasing water shortage in Southern Europe (Task 10) and constraints on the expansion of irrigation, increasing impacts of heatwaves and droughts, consequences of reduction of nutrient use due to environmental and climate mitigation constraints, need to be further evaluated.

ABSTRACT Agriculture and climate change are characterized by a complex cause-effect relationship. The agricultural sector generates significant quantities of gas emissions that affect climate. The rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the increase in temperatures as well as changes in the precipitation regime have repercussions on the volume, quality and stability of the agricultural and zoo technical production, but also on the natural environment in which agriculture is practiced. Based on the above, the purpose of the paper is twofold. Firstly, through the Wroclaw Taxonomic Method, we construct a composite indicator, called the Index of Sustainable Agriculture (ISA), and analyse 28 countries that have joined the European Union from 1 July 2013 to today (EU-28) over the period 2005–2014, according to 16 variables. Secondly, the Granger-causality test for panel data is implemented in order to verify the causal relationship among the ISA, climate change and agricultural production. In other words, we test which of the three analyzed variables turns out to be the cause variable and which, instead, turns out to be the effect variable. Furthermore, we test if there is a bidirectional causality among the variables. This analysis provides a wide overview on how European countries rank according to the ISA and its three crucial pillars, i.e. environmental, economic and social. Moreover, important causality relationships among the ISA, climate changes (approximated by mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation and provided by the Climate Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) Version 3.22 of the University of East Anglia) and agricultural production (approximated by wheat and spelt yields and provided by EUROSTAT) are identified. In particular, the following hypotheses are verified: 1) there is a negative bidirectional relationship between climate change and agricultural yields; 2) there is a negative bidirectional causal relationship between climate change and sustainable agriculture; 3) conventional agriculture negatively affects sustainable agriculture.

In this study an attempt is made to investigate potential implications of climate change in the near future (2021- 2050) in Greece. The report was published in 2009 (regarding Urban areas, Tourist areas, Agriculture & Forestry)

Wildfires, extreme heat and floods in Greece, as a result of climate change, NBC NEWS, in 2023.